One of the best traditions in college baseball is projection the Field of 64 and who is hosting? What regional the mid-major can end up in? The regional of death. Who could essentially have the easiest road to Omaha, etc, etc.
As former players, there was nothing more fun than pulling up Twitter and seeing Kendall Rogers' projected Field of 64 and saying "oooooh. Let's go! They have us in, going to Coral Gables!" or something like that. Definitely one of the best things to look forward to when you are having a really good season. So we like to put some effort into this and give it our best shot.
Full break down is the first hour of latest episode. We go through it all.
Without further ado, let's break this field down:
Note: The image below means 1 vs 16 Super Regional. 2 vs 15. 5 vs 12. So on.
First 5 out:
Troy comes in with a STRONG RPI of 35 but 3-4 against Q1 teams in a schedule that is ranked 56 SOS. Trojans have 5 wins over Louisiana and Evansville (64 and 72 RPI respectively), if those teams creep into Top 50 RPI then Troy will have 5 more Q1 wins. A series win over Texas State this weekend can maybe put them over the hump. They are knocking on the door.
Notre Dame is a weird team. Resume isn't very good but sitting at 8-10 in ACC play only makes them that close to an at-large team. .500 record in ACC play will get them in baring some crazy ass situation.
Old Dominion is a step behind Troy in terms of resume. They have zero 'high-quality' series wins. Georgia Southern used to be a big series win, but the Eags have fallen mightly. ODU needs finish very strong plus good showing in Fun Belt tournament. Only 2 Q1 wins with not much optimism there.
Iowa has a lot of work to do. They have a big showing at Karbach Classic with wins over LSU and K-State, but that's it. They have been good enough to avoid sweeps but haven't been able to secure a series vs Texas Tech, Maryland or Indiana.
Last 5 in:
You can consider the break down for Old Dominion to be pretty similar for Louisiana, but we are predicting Louisiana finishes stronger plus a lil' recency bias with their win over LSU this week. We originally had Michigan State in over Cajuns, but 30 minutes after finishing the field last night they dropped a game to Purdue Fort Wayne and dropped 20+ spots in RPI. Lmao.
UC Irvine follows the hot-cold-hot theory on a weekly basis. Anteaters look like a super team one weekend, and horrendous the next, but baseball is hard so we will give it a pass. Irvine swept Arizona State in Tempe which as of now is pretty impressive and overall 6-1 vs Q1 teams. That's a tournament team today.
Texas State needs to work on RPI a little more, but it should continue to go up as the head down the final stretch. Bobcats are 5-6 vs Q1 teams, but still have a ton of opportunity in front of them. Fun Belt will either boost each other or a free-for-all elimination.
Tennessee is on life support at this point. They need 8 more SEC wins, doesn't matter how they get them. Or 7 + a few wins in Hoover. Get series wins over Miss State, Georgia and Kentucky and avoid getting swept and they should be fine, but that's a lot of optimism. The committee doctor recommends starting this process with beating Vandy at home.
One of the best traditions in college baseball is projection the Field of 64 and who is hosting? What regional the mid-major can end up in? The regional of death. Who could essentially have the easiest road to Omaha, etc, etc.
As former players, there was nothing more fun than pulling up Twitter and seeing Kendall Rogers' projected Field of 64 and saying "oooooh. Let's go! They have us in, going to Coral Gables!" or something like that. Definitely one of the best things to look forward to when you are having a really good season. So we like to put some effort into this and give it our best shot.
Full break down is the first hour of latest episode. We go through it all.
Without further ado, let's break this field down:
Note: The image below means 1 vs 16 Super Regional. 2 vs 15. 5 vs 12. So on.
First 5 out:
Troy comes in with a STRONG RPI of 35 but 3-4 against Q1 teams in a schedule that is ranked 56 SOS. Trojans have 5 wins over Louisiana and Evansville (64 and 72 RPI respectively), if those teams creep into Top 50 RPI then Troy will have 5 more Q1 wins. A series win over Texas State this weekend can maybe put them over the hump. They are knocking on the door.
Notre Dame is a weird team. Resume isn't very good but sitting at 8-10 in ACC play only makes them that close to an at-large team. .500 record in ACC play will get them in baring some crazy ass situation.
Old Dominion is a step behind Troy in terms of resume. They have zero 'high-quality' series wins. Georgia Southern used to be a big series win, but the Eags have fallen mightly. ODU needs finish very strong plus good showing in Fun Belt tournament. Only 2 Q1 wins with not much optimism there.
Iowa has a lot of work to do. They have a big showing at Karbach Classic with wins over LSU and K-State, but that's it. They have been good enough to avoid sweeps but haven't been able to secure a series vs Texas Tech, Maryland or Indiana.
Last 5 in:
You can consider the break down for Old Dominion to be pretty similar for Louisiana, but we are predicting Louisiana finishes stronger plus a lil' recency bias with their win over LSU this week. We originally had Michigan State in over Cajuns, but 30 minutes after finishing the field last night they dropped a game to Purdue Fort Wayne and dropped 20+ spots in RPI. Lmao.
UC Irvine follows the hot-cold-hot theory on a weekly basis. Anteaters look like a super team one weekend, and horrendous the next, but baseball is hard so we will give it a pass. Irvine swept Arizona State in Tempe which as of now is pretty impressive and overall 6-1 vs Q1 teams. That's a tournament team today.
Texas State needs to work on RPI a little more, but it should continue to go up as the head down the final stretch. Bobcats are 5-6 vs Q1 teams, but still have a ton of opportunity in front of them. Fun Belt will either boost each other or a free-for-all elimination.
Tennessee is on life support at this point. They need 8 more SEC wins, doesn't matter how they get them. Or 7 + a few wins in Hoover. Get series wins over Miss State, Georgia and Kentucky and avoid getting swept and they should be fine, but that's a lot of optimism. The committee doctor recommends starting this process with beating Vandy at home.
