It is Friday morning of Conference Tournament week. A lot has happened, but at the same time nothing has really happened yet when focusing on the bubble. The weekend is where things get interesting.
We know that you are either an anxious fan of a team that is sitting on the bubble or a college baseball diehard that is missing the 9am games because you chose to read this article. To keep it as short and sweet as possible, let's separate this article in three sections: 1) Stolen Bid Watch, 2) Team-By-Team Capsules.
If you scroll all the way to the end, you will see the historical Last 4 in, First 4 out table since 2017 to give you some perspective on what a bubble team resume looks like. Keep in mind, the bubble size can vary from year to year. So you always pray its a big bubble if you are a fringe team.
Potential Bid Stealers
ACC: Pitt
Big Ten: Michigan, Purdue, Washington, Michigan State
Big West: Cal Poly, UCSD, Fullerton
C-USA: Dallas Baptist, Western Kentucky
SOCON: Western Carolina, Samford, The Citadel
Sun Belt: Troy, South Alabama (Louisiana, Texas State)
These teams are currently In, Out, or Need Help.
The Eagles are in the middle of a tailspin. Three weeks ago BC was in hosting conversations. After losing seven of their last eight games, the Eagles have shaky metrics. 17 ACC wins, good for 4th in the ACC standings should get them in. However, a losing Quad 1 record, RPI ranked 35th, DSR in the 40s, going just 6-5 in their series, and a 259th ranked SOS Boston College does not want to land in a comparison game. And they shouldn’t, but do not be surprised if you see them in bubble talks as teams could surpass them this weekend.
First things first, this is not saying Missouri State is on the bubble, it's simply showing that they are closer than you think to the bubble and things can change very fast. RPI is on the Bears’ side at 24, DSR is not, which is currently 51. Also, a 46 SOS is historically very favorable for mid-major teams anywhere near the bubble. The great news for Missouri State is that chalk has held up in the Conference USA Tournament. Every game played from here on out will help their metrics. Coach Joey Hawkins and his boys are sitting pretty. One thing to keep an eye on in the CUSA tournament is if Jacksonville State beats WKU today, the semifinals will be set with JaxState, Dallas Baptist, MoState and Liberty. That would guarantee a minimum 3-bid CUSA. If WKU wins, then MoState vs DBU becomes an elimination game with the winner advancing.
Ragin’ Cajuns currently sit at 38 RPI and 47 DSR to go along with their 44 SOS and stellar 7-7 Q1 record. A resume very similar to Missouri State outside of RPI. Series wins over Dallas Baptist, Southern Miss and Coastal Carolina is collectively one of the better resumes of the 3 Sun Belt teams in bubble territory. The only caveat is that they went 0-4 vs Texas State and finished 7th(!!) in the Sun Belt, which is typically a 2/3 sometimes 4 bid league. Will face Coastal Carolina today for a chance at revenge vs Texas State in bracket final. A win today should remove all doubts.
Find someone who loves you just as much as DSR loves the Hokies. Despite a -16 run differential and a 7-12 record in Q1, Virginia Tech is still receiving the benefit of doubt from the metric that includes a little bit of predictability in it. RPI (42) has VT on the bubble but as of now they are through TSA checkpoint.
“All wins and losses aren’t created equal,” according to Coach Nick Mingione. Kentucky went just 2-8 in SEC series, has losing Q1, Q2, and combined Q1&Q2 records, and a non-conference strength of schedule at 136. But the ‘Cats have that mythical, magical number of 13 wins and outside of good metrics, there is not a lot to love about the Wildcats’ resume. If it were up to us, leave them out. Winning should matter.
The 124 SOS, 220 NCSOS, and a 1-7 Quad 1 record are a black eye on the resume. With that said, the Bears are 42-6 in all other games. RPI and DSR have Mercer in the at-large field, KPI does not. KPI was not noticeably used by the NCAA Baseball Selection Committee last year. In its first year on teamsheets, DSR was utilized a lot by the NCAA Softball Tournament Selection Committee this year. The expectation is the Baseball committee will do the same. Coach Craig Gibson’s group is on the right side of things for now but it’s highly advised they win the SOCON Tournament.
20 aggregate conference wins, a 12-2 series record, and the eye test is the best argument for the Sun Devils to be in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona State’s lineup looked incredible Thursday night against Cincinnati. ASU was consistently stinging baseballs and made Cincy pay for fielding errors all night. All of the remaining teams in the Big 12 Tournament will not hurt Arizona State’s NCAAT chances. Sparky should be home free.
The Pirates’ resume is mostly good. Coach Cliff Godwin scheduled well and ECU is in the at-large field according to DSR and KPI. However, ECU still has work to do if the Selection Committee is just going to slave to RPI. Currently 45th, East Carolina has to avoid RPI potholes. Two of the remaining six teams in the American Tourney present RPI problems. Luckily for ECU, both Memphis and Wichita State are on the other side of the bracket.
Bobcats enter tomorrow’s Sun Belt semifinal vs winner of Coastal and Louisiana with a ton of momentum. They have ridden a roller coaster all season long, but seem to be playing their best baseball now, winning 9 of their last 10. RPI is up to 37 with 34 SOS and 6-9 Q1 record. A very respectable and historically safe at-large resume. They lost series to ULM, Troy, Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama while going 4-0 vs Louisiana. The H2H test favors them over Louisiana and that’s it. Regardless, one more win should quiet any doubts. But, never say never. The auto-bid is the only guarantee.
After a lousy late-inning effort against Kansas State, the Horned Frogs have left it all in the hands of the committee. Recent history with that should definitely concern Frog fans (no host in ‘25, left out in ‘24). RPI, traditionally the metric that the committee weighs the most, is the most harsh on TCU (46). Additionally, Texas Christian University is just 6-12 against Quad 1 opponents. But TCU has good arguments using DSR, KPI, and 17 conference wins. TCU will be under the magnifying glass this weekend and will have to root for chalk to hold in other tournaments around the country. Not to mention, they have had some recent injuries to star pieces in their lineup, that could impact the committee's view on this team as worthy of a bid.
It is rare that below .500 ACC teams get into the NCAA Tournament. Of this year’s crop of teams, NC State (14-16) could have the best chance of bucking the strong trend. Let’s start off with the bad: injuries, conference record, RPI, and Q1 record. Here is the good: DSR, KPI, and Strength of Schedule. In fact, the Wolf Pack faced the toughest ACC SOS. They still went just 4-6 in their 10 conference series. If the Team Capsule ended here NCSU would probably be out. However, Coach Elliott Avent has announced he is retiring after the season. Will that have any factor in the Selection Committee’s decision? It shouldn’t. But will they lend out an olive branch to a coach and a program that has been on the wrong end of NCAA decisions too many times?
Panthers will finish today’s game vs Charleston Southern with a 3-2 lead in the 2nd inning. High Point currently has 40 RPI and 57 DSR… not a comfortable place to be in as a mid-major bubble team. Historically, a bubble team with an 89 SOS ends up missing the tournament. A road series win @ Florida will carry some weight when the committee compares their resume. My suggestion is just win the Big South auto bid and avoid any Monday sweats because quite a few other mid-majors have boosted their resumes this week while a few P4 teams will get the benefit of the doubt. I’m not sure High Point gets an at-large bid.
Skylar Meade has seen the wrong side of the bubble in 2 consecutive years. In 2024, Trojans were 37-22 (18-12) with 39 RPI and 94 SOS and in 2025, they finished 39-21 (18-12) with 47 RPI and 71 SOS. The SOS is what killed them both years so Meade put together the #2 non-conference SOS with 9 SOS overall, leaving no doubt that they played a tough schedule. The 2025 team hovered around .500 nearly the whole 2nd half of the season while currently 30-27 (17-13) with a 39 RPI and 9 SOS. One of my most interesting cases leading into Selection Monday. We will find out if the committee values SOS and schedule toughness over pure winning. Trojans face Southern Miss with a trip to bracket final on the line. A win today, should guarantee a bid, bumping them up to 36 RPI, but it's really difficult to see a non P4 team, 4 games over .500 getting an at-large bid. If Troy ends up getting in, it could make for a 5-bid Sun Belt, which would be an incredible feat.
Roadrunners come into today’s AAC semifinal game with a 52 RPI/41 DSR and 104 SOS. A loss to Memphis today would be the nail in the coffin for their at-large chances, handing them a -5 RPI spot drop to 57. A 50’s RPI with a 100+ SOS is automatic elimination. UTSA needs to at least make the AAC title game, and I’d say win that too to play regional baseball.
A team that just always seems to play well in B1G tournament in Omaha… Wolverines come into today’s quarterfinal game vs Nebraska with an aggregated B1G record of 19-14 and 50 RPI/68 DSR with a 68 SOS. Must win vs Nebraska to keep themselves alive, a win would put them at 45 RPI… still not quite enough because of their 4-10 Q1 record and 60s SOS. Making an appearance in B1G title game would probably be the ticket. Michigan making B1G title game could be considered a stolen bid as they would potentially trump a few other bubble teams.
These teams are 44 and 54 RPI respectively and in the losers bracket of MAC tournament with SOSs in the 100s…Miami faces Western Michigan today and a win would put them squarely on the bubble as DSR does not like them sitting at 77. Making the title game might be enough, but their 141 SOS is detrimental as bubble teams are always punished for it. My best bet is both Miami and Kent State need to win the MAC auto bid to play regional baseball.
It is Friday morning of Conference Tournament week. A lot has happened, but at the same time nothing has really happened yet when focusing on the bubble. The weekend is where things get interesting.
We know that you are either an anxious fan of a team that is sitting on the bubble or a college baseball diehard that is missing the 9am games because you chose to read this article. To keep it as short and sweet as possible, let's separate this article in three sections: 1) Stolen Bid Watch, 2) Team-By-Team Capsules.
If you scroll all the way to the end, you will see the historical Last 4 in, First 4 out table since 2017 to give you some perspective on what a bubble team resume looks like. Keep in mind, the bubble size can vary from year to year. So you always pray its a big bubble if you are a fringe team.
Potential Bid Stealers
ACC: Pitt
Big Ten: Michigan, Purdue, Washington, Michigan State
Big West: Cal Poly, UCSD, Fullerton
C-USA: Dallas Baptist, Western Kentucky
SOCON: Western Carolina, Samford, The Citadel
Sun Belt: Troy, South Alabama (Louisiana, Texas State)
These teams are currently In, Out, or Need Help.
The Eagles are in the middle of a tailspin. Three weeks ago BC was in hosting conversations. After losing seven of their last eight games, the Eagles have shaky metrics. 17 ACC wins, good for 4th in the ACC standings should get them in. However, a losing Quad 1 record, RPI ranked 35th, DSR in the 40s, going just 6-5 in their series, and a 259th ranked SOS Boston College does not want to land in a comparison game. And they shouldn’t, but do not be surprised if you see them in bubble talks as teams could surpass them this weekend.
First things first, this is not saying Missouri State is on the bubble, it's simply showing that they are closer than you think to the bubble and things can change very fast. RPI is on the Bears’ side at 24, DSR is not, which is currently 51. Also, a 46 SOS is historically very favorable for mid-major teams anywhere near the bubble. The great news for Missouri State is that chalk has held up in the Conference USA Tournament. Every game played from here on out will help their metrics. Coach Joey Hawkins and his boys are sitting pretty. One thing to keep an eye on in the CUSA tournament is if Jacksonville State beats WKU today, the semifinals will be set with JaxState, Dallas Baptist, MoState and Liberty. That would guarantee a minimum 3-bid CUSA. If WKU wins, then MoState vs DBU becomes an elimination game with the winner advancing.
Ragin’ Cajuns currently sit at 38 RPI and 47 DSR to go along with their 44 SOS and stellar 7-7 Q1 record. A resume very similar to Missouri State outside of RPI. Series wins over Dallas Baptist, Southern Miss and Coastal Carolina is collectively one of the better resumes of the 3 Sun Belt teams in bubble territory. The only caveat is that they went 0-4 vs Texas State and finished 7th(!!) in the Sun Belt, which is typically a 2/3 sometimes 4 bid league. Will face Coastal Carolina today for a chance at revenge vs Texas State in bracket final. A win today should remove all doubts.
Find someone who loves you just as much as DSR loves the Hokies. Despite a -16 run differential and a 7-12 record in Q1, Virginia Tech is still receiving the benefit of doubt from the metric that includes a little bit of predictability in it. RPI (42) has VT on the bubble but as of now they are through TSA checkpoint.
“All wins and losses aren’t created equal,” according to Coach Nick Mingione. Kentucky went just 2-8 in SEC series, has losing Q1, Q2, and combined Q1&Q2 records, and a non-conference strength of schedule at 136. But the ‘Cats have that mythical, magical number of 13 wins and outside of good metrics, there is not a lot to love about the Wildcats’ resume. If it were up to us, leave them out. Winning should matter.
The 124 SOS, 220 NCSOS, and a 1-7 Quad 1 record are a black eye on the resume. With that said, the Bears are 42-6 in all other games. RPI and DSR have Mercer in the at-large field, KPI does not. KPI was not noticeably used by the NCAA Baseball Selection Committee last year. In its first year on teamsheets, DSR was utilized a lot by the NCAA Softball Tournament Selection Committee this year. The expectation is the Baseball committee will do the same. Coach Craig Gibson’s group is on the right side of things for now but it’s highly advised they win the SOCON Tournament.
20 aggregate conference wins, a 12-2 series record, and the eye test is the best argument for the Sun Devils to be in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona State’s lineup looked incredible Thursday night against Cincinnati. ASU was consistently stinging baseballs and made Cincy pay for fielding errors all night. All of the remaining teams in the Big 12 Tournament will not hurt Arizona State’s NCAAT chances. Sparky should be home free.
The Pirates’ resume is mostly good. Coach Cliff Godwin scheduled well and ECU is in the at-large field according to DSR and KPI. However, ECU still has work to do if the Selection Committee is just going to slave to RPI. Currently 45th, East Carolina has to avoid RPI potholes. Two of the remaining six teams in the American Tourney present RPI problems. Luckily for ECU, both Memphis and Wichita State are on the other side of the bracket.
Bobcats enter tomorrow’s Sun Belt semifinal vs winner of Coastal and Louisiana with a ton of momentum. They have ridden a roller coaster all season long, but seem to be playing their best baseball now, winning 9 of their last 10. RPI is up to 37 with 34 SOS and 6-9 Q1 record. A very respectable and historically safe at-large resume. They lost series to ULM, Troy, Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama while going 4-0 vs Louisiana. The H2H test favors them over Louisiana and that’s it. Regardless, one more win should quiet any doubts. But, never say never. The auto-bid is the only guarantee.
After a lousy late-inning effort against Kansas State, the Horned Frogs have left it all in the hands of the committee. Recent history with that should definitely concern Frog fans (no host in ‘25, left out in ‘24). RPI, traditionally the metric that the committee weighs the most, is the most harsh on TCU (46). Additionally, Texas Christian University is just 6-12 against Quad 1 opponents. But TCU has good arguments using DSR, KPI, and 17 conference wins. TCU will be under the magnifying glass this weekend and will have to root for chalk to hold in other tournaments around the country. Not to mention, they have had some recent injuries to star pieces in their lineup, that could impact the committee's view on this team as worthy of a bid.
It is rare that below .500 ACC teams get into the NCAA Tournament. Of this year’s crop of teams, NC State (14-16) could have the best chance of bucking the strong trend. Let’s start off with the bad: injuries, conference record, RPI, and Q1 record. Here is the good: DSR, KPI, and Strength of Schedule. In fact, the Wolf Pack faced the toughest ACC SOS. They still went just 4-6 in their 10 conference series. If the Team Capsule ended here NCSU would probably be out. However, Coach Elliott Avent has announced he is retiring after the season. Will that have any factor in the Selection Committee’s decision? It shouldn’t. But will they lend out an olive branch to a coach and a program that has been on the wrong end of NCAA decisions too many times?
Panthers will finish today’s game vs Charleston Southern with a 3-2 lead in the 2nd inning. High Point currently has 40 RPI and 57 DSR… not a comfortable place to be in as a mid-major bubble team. Historically, a bubble team with an 89 SOS ends up missing the tournament. A road series win @ Florida will carry some weight when the committee compares their resume. My suggestion is just win the Big South auto bid and avoid any Monday sweats because quite a few other mid-majors have boosted their resumes this week while a few P4 teams will get the benefit of the doubt. I’m not sure High Point gets an at-large bid.
Skylar Meade has seen the wrong side of the bubble in 2 consecutive years. In 2024, Trojans were 37-22 (18-12) with 39 RPI and 94 SOS and in 2025, they finished 39-21 (18-12) with 47 RPI and 71 SOS. The SOS is what killed them both years so Meade put together the #2 non-conference SOS with 9 SOS overall, leaving no doubt that they played a tough schedule. The 2025 team hovered around .500 nearly the whole 2nd half of the season while currently 30-27 (17-13) with a 39 RPI and 9 SOS. One of my most interesting cases leading into Selection Monday. We will find out if the committee values SOS and schedule toughness over pure winning. Trojans face Southern Miss with a trip to bracket final on the line. A win today, should guarantee a bid, bumping them up to 36 RPI, but it's really difficult to see a non P4 team, 4 games over .500 getting an at-large bid. If Troy ends up getting in, it could make for a 5-bid Sun Belt, which would be an incredible feat.
Roadrunners come into today’s AAC semifinal game with a 52 RPI/41 DSR and 104 SOS. A loss to Memphis today would be the nail in the coffin for their at-large chances, handing them a -5 RPI spot drop to 57. A 50’s RPI with a 100+ SOS is automatic elimination. UTSA needs to at least make the AAC title game, and I’d say win that too to play regional baseball.
A team that just always seems to play well in B1G tournament in Omaha… Wolverines come into today’s quarterfinal game vs Nebraska with an aggregated B1G record of 19-14 and 50 RPI/68 DSR with a 68 SOS. Must win vs Nebraska to keep themselves alive, a win would put them at 45 RPI… still not quite enough because of their 4-10 Q1 record and 60s SOS. Making an appearance in B1G title game would probably be the ticket. Michigan making B1G title game could be considered a stolen bid as they would potentially trump a few other bubble teams.
These teams are 44 and 54 RPI respectively and in the losers bracket of MAC tournament with SOSs in the 100s…Miami faces Western Michigan today and a win would put them squarely on the bubble as DSR does not like them sitting at 77. Making the title game might be enough, but their 141 SOS is detrimental as bubble teams are always punished for it. My best bet is both Miami and Kent State need to win the MAC auto bid to play regional baseball.
