This Field of 64 is interesting as hell because of how the at-large bubble is shaping up with your usual postseason teams fighting for their lives heading into this final weekend. Obviously, the bubble will form completely different as stolen bids come in, but it is pretty wide open as of right now. Teams in the 60s RPI still have just as good of a chance as teams in the 40s with one weekend and conference tournaments left to boost resumes.
We struggled with setting a bar for Power 5 teams and their lackluster conference records. For example, SEC teams need to hit that 13 win threshold to have a fighting chance. Those 13 wins can come from regular season and tournament combined. ACC is probably similar, maybe 14 if we get nitty gritty with it.
The most interesting thing will be: how much does geography play into the hosting sites this year? The West Coast is in-line to only have 1 host (Stanford), meanwhile the north/northeast is in-line for none, depending on if you consider the state of Virginia to be northern. UConn, Indiana State, Boston College and Indiana all still have a legit shot to slide into the hosting picture, but resumes are lacking a little. Boston College needs to win final series vs Notre Dame and make some noise in Durham (ACCT) to really have a legit argument. Their 195 Non-Conference SOS won't play in the committee's eyes. Indiana State's RPI might look beautiful, but in reality its solely because of a tough schedule and not so much due a large quantity of quality wins (2-9 vs Q1). Sycs might need to win Missouri Valley tournament to even have a shot at hosting. UConn is in a similar boat as Indiana State, without the tough schedule part.
Indiana, Oregon State, Southern Miss, Tennessee and East Carolina are all a big weekend and a decent conference tournament showing from hosting. Southern Miss needs to grab that Fun Belt regular season title and they should be realllyyyyyy close, maybe replace Coastal Carolina depending on how Chants finish. Oregon State needs a strong Pac-12 Tournament showing and they are close as well. Indiana has a decent shot at hosting as they can clinch the Big Ten regular season title this weekend, add a Big Ten tournament title and they should get a bid.
We went with Dallas Baptist and Oklahoma State as the final 2 hosting sites for a few reasons. Can anyone truly envision a postseason without a regional in the state of Texas? If the committee can do it, they will put one site in Texas. Not saying that DBU doesn't deserve it, but they might be in a favorable position over some others. Oklahoma State is in position to finish 2nd in the Big 12 and you have to imagine the Big 12 will get 2 hosting sites, it's that simple. If Tennesee wins their final series at South Carolina and grab a win or two in Hoover, they might slide in over one of those teams.
The Duke @ Miami series could potentially be a winner hosts, loser travels scenario as Miami's resume isn't a slam dunk by any means, while Duke has trended down the last week or so (recent performance matters).
The Tennessee @ South Carolina series could also be very similar to Duke/Miami. I think South Carolina would have to have an epic collapse to lose a hosting bid, but never say never.
Last 5 In:
1. Georgia Tech
2. TCU
3. USC
4. NC State
5. Texas State
Last 5 Out:
1. Xavier
2. Georgia
3. UC Irvine
4. Mizzou
5. Rutgers
Ben and I were both not a huge fan of the back end of the at-large teams, as it got super weak when doing this projection, but you have to assume it won't be like this once the stolen bids come in and the window shrinks. All 5 of those 'Last 5 In' could realistically miss the tournament as the bubble won't have enough room. With that being said, they can still improve those resumes and get in more comfortably in the next 10 days. We both are not huge fans of teams 3+ games under .500 in conference play getting at-large bids, but you have to accept that a near .500 team in the SEC or ACC is still a pretty damn good team.
We will release one more Field of 64 after conference tournaments wrap up next Sunday, that is the grand daddy of em all. Its much easier and more fun when the picture is clear and you can get super nitty gritty with it.
This Field of 64 is interesting as hell because of how the at-large bubble is shaping up with your usual postseason teams fighting for their lives heading into this final weekend. Obviously, the bubble will form completely different as stolen bids come in, but it is pretty wide open as of right now. Teams in the 60s RPI still have just as good of a chance as teams in the 40s with one weekend and conference tournaments left to boost resumes.
We struggled with setting a bar for Power 5 teams and their lackluster conference records. For example, SEC teams need to hit that 13 win threshold to have a fighting chance. Those 13 wins can come from regular season and tournament combined. ACC is probably similar, maybe 14 if we get nitty gritty with it.
The most interesting thing will be: how much does geography play into the hosting sites this year? The West Coast is in-line to only have 1 host (Stanford), meanwhile the north/northeast is in-line for none, depending on if you consider the state of Virginia to be northern. UConn, Indiana State, Boston College and Indiana all still have a legit shot to slide into the hosting picture, but resumes are lacking a little. Boston College needs to win final series vs Notre Dame and make some noise in Durham (ACCT) to really have a legit argument. Their 195 Non-Conference SOS won't play in the committee's eyes. Indiana State's RPI might look beautiful, but in reality its solely because of a tough schedule and not so much due a large quantity of quality wins (2-9 vs Q1). Sycs might need to win Missouri Valley tournament to even have a shot at hosting. UConn is in a similar boat as Indiana State, without the tough schedule part.
Indiana, Oregon State, Southern Miss, Tennessee and East Carolina are all a big weekend and a decent conference tournament showing from hosting. Southern Miss needs to grab that Fun Belt regular season title and they should be realllyyyyyy close, maybe replace Coastal Carolina depending on how Chants finish. Oregon State needs a strong Pac-12 Tournament showing and they are close as well. Indiana has a decent shot at hosting as they can clinch the Big Ten regular season title this weekend, add a Big Ten tournament title and they should get a bid.
We went with Dallas Baptist and Oklahoma State as the final 2 hosting sites for a few reasons. Can anyone truly envision a postseason without a regional in the state of Texas? If the committee can do it, they will put one site in Texas. Not saying that DBU doesn't deserve it, but they might be in a favorable position over some others. Oklahoma State is in position to finish 2nd in the Big 12 and you have to imagine the Big 12 will get 2 hosting sites, it's that simple. If Tennesee wins their final series at South Carolina and grab a win or two in Hoover, they might slide in over one of those teams.
The Duke @ Miami series could potentially be a winner hosts, loser travels scenario as Miami's resume isn't a slam dunk by any means, while Duke has trended down the last week or so (recent performance matters).
The Tennessee @ South Carolina series could also be very similar to Duke/Miami. I think South Carolina would have to have an epic collapse to lose a hosting bid, but never say never.
Last 5 In:
1. Georgia Tech
2. TCU
3. USC
4. NC State
5. Texas State
Last 5 Out:
1. Xavier
2. Georgia
3. UC Irvine
4. Mizzou
5. Rutgers
Ben and I were both not a huge fan of the back end of the at-large teams, as it got super weak when doing this projection, but you have to assume it won't be like this once the stolen bids come in and the window shrinks. All 5 of those 'Last 5 In' could realistically miss the tournament as the bubble won't have enough room. With that being said, they can still improve those resumes and get in more comfortably in the next 10 days. We both are not huge fans of teams 3+ games under .500 in conference play getting at-large bids, but you have to accept that a near .500 team in the SEC or ACC is still a pretty damn good team.
We will release one more Field of 64 after conference tournaments wrap up next Sunday, that is the grand daddy of em all. Its much easier and more fun when the picture is clear and you can get super nitty gritty with it.
