After about 3-4 hours of high-leverage deliberation with myself and Warren Nolan's RPI system, I have finally put together something I am ok with releasing. Still don't feel 100% comfortable, but I guess that's what a projection is. Fun what-ifs, possible outcomes, early season success stories and crazy longshot possibilities. I tried to use a healthy balance of current results and standings and future projections, so some teams might be placed based on today and some might be placed based on where they should be Selection Monday.
Normally, I would include a Last 5 in and Last 5 out but its too early to separate teams like that especially when I am including some of my opinions in future results.
Here is a few notes/thoughts I had as I went through this thing:
*Kentucky's resume can't be ignored... but if they get 1 or 2 marquee series wins. They will be there for a national seed.
*I think Big Ten winner could get hosting spot (Indiana? Maryland?)
*How much respect will committee give Fun Belt and CUSA? Fun Belt might be able to get more than 3 teams in.
*Michigan State is an interesting team... 48 RPI, 5-1 vs Q1 and 6-3 in Big Ten play. History says they won't sustain it.
*Maryland has a lot of climbing to do and I think they will once it's all said and done so I have them in.
*Big 12 will probably get 2 hosts. Texas/Ok State/TCU
*Ok State schedule super weak to end season will make it tough to finish with top 20 RPI
*If Southern Miss wins series @ Coastal. They can play right into hosting again.
*Campbell's rest of schedule too weak to hold RPI high enough for hosting.
*Tennessee, Alabama, Miami, UCLA, Oregon all are a strong finish away from hosting (and a few more teams).
*UCLA gets host nod over Oregon with H2H win.
*Pac-12 is hard to read with teams like USC at 9-3 in conf play but 68 RPI and Arizona State at 10-2 but have only played bottom half of Pac-12 standings.
After about 3-4 hours of high-leverage deliberation with myself and Warren Nolan's RPI system, I have finally put together something I am ok with releasing. Still don't feel 100% comfortable, but I guess that's what a projection is. Fun what-ifs, possible outcomes, early season success stories and crazy longshot possibilities. I tried to use a healthy balance of current results and standings and future projections, so some teams might be placed based on today and some might be placed based on where they should be Selection Monday.
Normally, I would include a Last 5 in and Last 5 out but its too early to separate teams like that especially when I am including some of my opinions in future results.
Here is a few notes/thoughts I had as I went through this thing:
*Kentucky's resume can't be ignored... but if they get 1 or 2 marquee series wins. They will be there for a national seed.
*I think Big Ten winner could get hosting spot (Indiana? Maryland?)
*How much respect will committee give Fun Belt and CUSA? Fun Belt might be able to get more than 3 teams in.
*Michigan State is an interesting team... 48 RPI, 5-1 vs Q1 and 6-3 in Big Ten play. History says they won't sustain it.
*Maryland has a lot of climbing to do and I think they will once it's all said and done so I have them in.
*Big 12 will probably get 2 hosts. Texas/Ok State/TCU
*Ok State schedule super weak to end season will make it tough to finish with top 20 RPI
*If Southern Miss wins series @ Coastal. They can play right into hosting again.
*Campbell's rest of schedule too weak to hold RPI high enough for hosting.
*Tennessee, Alabama, Miami, UCLA, Oregon all are a strong finish away from hosting (and a few more teams).
*UCLA gets host nod over Oregon with H2H win.
*Pac-12 is hard to read with teams like USC at 9-3 in conf play but 68 RPI and Arizona State at 10-2 but have only played bottom half of Pac-12 standings.
